Was the Matrix wrong?

Troed made an interesting comment yesterday: statistically there is a high probability that we are all avatars. Welcome to our self-chosen Matrix… Read all about the debate on the simulation argument website

The site is a debate about the possibility that we may be living in a simulation. A brief introduction is in order. The paper on the site argues that at least one of the following propositions is true:

i. It is possible that a civilization could create a computer simulation which contains individuals with artificial intelligence.

ii. Such a civilization would likely run many – say billions – of these simulations (just for fun; for research, etc.)

iii. A simulated individual inside the simulation wouldn’t know that it’s inside a simulation – it’s just going about its daily business in what it considers the “real world”.

Then the ultimate question is – if one accepts that points 1-2-3 are at least possible, which of the following is more likely?

a. We are the one civilization out there in the universe that will eventually develop the ability to run AI simulations? Or,

b. We are one of the billions of simulations that has run? (Remember point iii.)

While you’re at it, take some time to read the simulated reality wiki.

I did get a funny feeling when reading Troeds post on the Matrix … I don’t think I would want to spend my life in a pod, no matter how good the reality. I think I’d end up taking the red pill. But then again … how would I know? (Remember point iii.)