… and as someone who’s been an evaluator myself, I can wholeheartedly back these up. Here are some of my key takeaways and lessons from the other side of the table:
1. “Don’t put a square peg in a round hole”
If your project’s not a natural fit for the open call, don’t try to shoehorn it in. As evaluators, we DO notice when an application is a mismatch or feels forced to fit into that particular open call. Fun story: I actually did see the same proposal come back in 2 different open calls once.
2. The AI echo chamber:
Yes, AI tools are everywhere and can help with drafting proposals, but beware … When an evaluator reads multiple proposals in a row, all in the same generic “AI voice” it quickly becomes tedious (and obvious). I say “AI voice” but actually mean one proposal after the other written in what must be AI generated verbal diarrhea because I can’t possibly imagine real people writing all in that exact same “style” (unless they’re all professional proposal writers, but that is another story). Originality and authenticity do stand out. If you use AI, which is ok nowadays I guess, edit the output and make sure to rewrite it in your own voice. And do a search/replace to throw out the “em-dash” – even though I like them and think they’re ok, many people see them as a dead give-away of AI generated content. And all AI tools put them in. Every. Single. Time. If anyone has reliable stopped an AI of throwing them in, let me know!
3. RTFM… Really: Read the F***ing manual.
We’ve all skipped manuals before, but in this case, read the open call documentation (the “guide for applicants”). It literally tells you exactly what evaluators look for, how scoring works, and what you need to submit by when and on what platform. Don’t fight it, embrace it. (This tip is courtesy of Wouter Desmet, thanks for drilling that one in) PS … if you’re hooked on AI, you can have your ChatGPT or other buddy summarize it for you.😉
4. Don’t procrastinate, so you don’t need to rush it in the end:
Great proposals take time. Set aside drafts, revisit them, iterate. You’ll spot what needs work. Also, run that spell check. Nothing says ‘last-minute dash’ like typos and missing documents. You also don’t want your proposal tanked because of missing files or blank sections. I’ve seen it all…
If you’re interested in talking further on proposals for open calls, use the contact form on the site to connect.
I wrote about the involvement of Venture Capital in the defense industry a while back (click here to read up on that one). However, with the current geopolitical tension and Europe looking at investing more in defending itself again, there have been some important changes in the funding landscape.
With geopolitical tensions reshaping priorities, Europe has launched unprecedented funding mechanisms targeting innovative companies developing technologies that enhance both civilian and military capabilities. If you’re building in AI, autonomy, cybersecurity, biotech, or other sectors, your solution likely has dual-use potential and there are programs out there that may want to fund you.
Below I dig a bit deeper into what every European founder needs to know about accessing these opportunities.
But first… addressing ethical concerns
Many startups may hesitate to pursue defense-related funding due to concerns about the military applications of their technologies, and that’s understandable. However, these programs specifically emphasize dual-use technologies that serve both civilian and defense purposes, contributing to broader societal benefits while enhancing security. The focus on dual-use innovation means that startups can develop technologies with clear civilian applications while also contributing to collective security and defense capabilities.
Think secure communication, resilient infrastructure, satellite navigation, autonomous logistics, or medical tech for extreme environments. Technologies that not only protect borders but save lives.
EU DEFENCE INNOVATION PROGRAMS: YOUR GATEWAY TO GROWTH
First up are the Euopeanwide programmes, that are funded by the European Commission and NATO.
European Defence Fund (EDF) + EU Defence Innovation Scheme (EUDIS)
The EDF represents Europe’s flagship defense innovation initiative, while EUDIS specifically targets SMEs and startups within this framework. Together, they offer multiple entry points:
Key Focus Areas: Cyber defense and resilience, Space-based defense technologies, Autonomous systems and AI, Maritime and naval technologies, Training and simulation systems
What’s Available:
Research grants: Up to 100% funding for collaborative R&D
Cascade funding: up to €500,000 grants through Innovation Test Hubs
Business coaching: 15 days free mentoring for successful applicants
Defense Equity Facility: Enhanced access to equity investments
Eligibility: SMEs, startups, and established companies across all EU member states. For 2025, Ukrainian entities are also eligible, recognizing battlefield experience and defense industry contributions. Do note: for EDF projects, there is a requirement of minimum 3 consortium partners over different countries.
NATO Innovation Ecosystem: Scale Across 28 Countries with DIANA + NATO Innovation Fund
Network: 28 countries, 23 accelerator sites, 182 test centers Investment Capital: €1 billion fund backed by 24 NATO allies
DIANA’s six-month accelerator program connects startups with military end-users through practical challenges. Recent 2025 launches include energy solutions, contested electromagnetic environments, and autonomous systems.
Immediate Opportunities:
€100,000 contractual funding for selected innovators
Access to unique test facilities across Europe and North America
Direct pathways to NATO procurement networks
The NATO Innovation Fund operates as Europe’s largest defense-focused VC, investing in deep tech companies developing sensors, software platforms, space communications, and strategic technologies.
European Innovation Council (EIC) & Horizon Europe
The EIC Accelerator—part of Horizon Europe—has quietly become a major backer of dual-use technology. With grants up to €2.5M and equity up to €15M, it now allows defence-relevant applications, opening the door for founders innovating in cyber, space, and advanced materials.
The European Investment Fund (EIF) recently launched the Defence Equity Facility to back funds investing in dual-use ventures. In parallel, STEP (Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform) lets member states reallocate cohesion funding.
NATIONAL PROGRAMS: DIRECT ACCESS TO LOCAL PARTNERS
Next to investments on a European level, various local innovation and defense organisations are rolling out plans to support innovative technologies with dual use in their countries. Below are some examples I found:
Belgium’s Innovation for Defence (Inno4Def)
Launched in 2023, Inno4Def focuses on short-cycle innovation to maintain Belgium’s technological edge in defence. The program’s 2025 Battlefield of Things 2: Drones hackathon brought together 190 participants—military personnel, engineers, students, and entrepreneurs—to tackle challenges such as GPS denied navigation, anti drone systems and procurement modernisation.
Established in 2017, the Bundeswehr Cyber Innovation Hub (CIHBw) acts as a gateway for startups to collaborate with Germany’s armed forces. CIHBw’s hybrid team of soldiers, entrepreneurs, and engineers has facilitated partnerships with startups like ARX Robotics, whose modular drones are now deployed in NATO operations.
In April 2025, the Netherlands announced a €1.15 billion investment to bolster its defence industry, where a strategy explicitly links civilian R&D to military needs, with startups receiving grants to scale innovations.
Sweden’s 2024 initiative, backed by Vinnova (the national innovation agency), funds projects for civil-military synergies. The program mandates collaboration between startups and established defence firms, ensuring rapid technology transfer.
DASA or Defence and Security Accelerator is the UK-based innovation agency run by the UK Ministry of Defence (MOD). It was launched in 2016 with the goal of finding and funding innovative ideas that can improve the UK’s defence and national security. They offer open calls, non-dilutive funding, dual-use commercialisation through themed competitions and open calls for innovation.
Assess your technology for dual-use applications—AI, sensors, communication, and automation often qualify
Leverage hackathons like Belgium’s Inno4Def for direct military end-user access
Target cascade funding through EUDIS Innovation Test Hubs (up to €500,000)
Build consortium partnerships for larger EDF applications requiring cross-border collaboration
Ready to explore these opportunities?
If you’re developing technology that could protect critical infrastructure, support humanitarian operations, or secure our digital borders, now is the time to engage. These programs are not about fueling conflict—they are about building the foundations of peace, resilience, and collective security in an unpredictable world.
Humankind has always wanted to know what will happen in the future. From the rulers of ancient Rome to CEO’s of current companies, all of them have been looking to predict the future, in order to secure their empire or their business. Thankfully, nowadays we have reliable tools to allow us to chart a course through the uncharted waters of the future.
Ancient cultures sought to unravel the mysteries of the future through a diverse array of practices rooted in spirituality, observation, and symbolism. From the casting of lots and interpreting celestial movements in astrology to divining messages in dreams and deciphering the flight of birds in augury, these civilizations blended religious beliefs with practical methodologies to predict the unknown. As those methods didn’t really work as advertised, business leaders and facilitators have turned toFutures Thinking,which provides a structure for thinking how the world could change, and the implications of that for our plans. Futures Thinking can help us to analyse the past and anticipate future trends, and uncover hidden biases and assumptions to enable us to think about the future more creatively.
FUTURES WHAT?
There doesn’t seem to be one universally agreed upon definition of “Futures Thinking”, but in general it’s seen as a strategic and anticipatory approach to understanding and preparing for the future. It involves exploring potential scenarios, trends, and uncertainties tomake informed decisions about the future … in the present. It is a multidisciplinary field that draws on insights from various sources, including technology, sociology, economics, and environmental studies, to analyze possible future outcomes. You may have also heard it mentioned under other terms such as foresight, futurism, futurology, anticipation studies, etc.
By examining emerging these patterns, forecasting trends, and considering alternative futures, individuals and organizations can develop more resilient strategies and adapt to changing circumstances. Futures thinking encourages a proactive mindset, fostering the ability to navigate complexities and uncertainties in an ever-evolving VUCA world.
A STEP BY STEP PROCESS
In practice, Futures Thinking sessions will yield aseries of scenarios, which are meant to illustrate multiple options for what the future might be without defining an exact prediction. We can then design product concepts for any one of these future scenarios, meaning that the end-point of the Futures Thinking process can be seen as the starting point for a Design Thinking process — one can feed into the other. It is important to realise that Futures Thinking doesn’t tell you whatWILL, happen, but whatCOULDhappen.
In a more structured way, a Futures Thinking workshop will try to answer these questions:
What will occur in my industry in the next 5, 10 or 20 years?
What are the most important emerging trends and issues?
What actions, strategies and policies will influence my desirable outcomes?
A Futures Thinking sessions generally takes place in 4 steps:
Step 1 is “asking the Question”: starting with the right question is key. How far do you want to think (hint, it should be somewhere between 5 and 15 years for real futures thinking)
Step 2 is “Scanning the World”: what are the drivers that will shape how the question will be answered. In this stage, it is all about gathering the relevant information.
Step 3 is “Mapping the possibilities”: there is no one future, so in a workshop, we need to find out what the possible outcomes are – is the future better or worse than what you expect?
Step 4 is “Asking the next question”: how would you answer the original question in each of the futures?
A 5th step is to start asking follow-up questions. Now, it’s time to address questions such as: What actions and strategies can lead to the best-case or at least an acceptable future? What obstacles are keeping you from taking the necessary steps?What are competitors doing?
From this, we will start to formulate strategies and try to lay out a concrete plan. What choices and changes do we need to make to get to an acceptable future? What policies and actions do we need leaders and stakeholders to agree to and adopt? Can this session help us look beyond the probable futures, more broader into possible futures, to identify unforeseen opportunities?
The image above shows the difference in convergence and divergence of futures thinking versus design thinking (source:
WELCOME TO THE VOROSCOPE
To understand Futures Thinking, it is often explained through the “futures cone“, also known as the “voroscope”, named after its inventor, Joseph Voros (and to confuse you even more, this one is sometimes also called “the cone of uncertainty”)
The Framework Foresight from the University of Houston
FUTURES THINKING TOOLS
There are a number of specificexercisesthat are well tailored to Futures Thinking. Below is a non-exhaustive list of tools and exercises that can be used as part of a Futures Thinking session:
Scenario analysis: used in strategic market analysis. Questions to ask here are “what are the most likely scenarios?” and “Can we extrapolate current trends?”
Business model canvas exercises:the BMC can be adapted to imagine different possible futures by altering any of the building blocks in it.
Horizon scanning: the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities, and likely future developments, including those at the margins of current thinking and beyond conventional foresight timeframes.
TAIDA: Tracking, Analysing, Imagining, Deciding, Acting. Analyse the changes happening around us, imagining a vision, decide on a strategy, and execute that strategy.
The futures triangle(Sohail), with the weight of history, the push of the present and the pull of the future:
Weight of history: What could hold us back? Which barriers are necessary to change? What deep structures are resisting the change?
Push of the present: Which trends push the people towards specific futures? What quantitative trends and drivers are or may be changing the future?
Pull of the future: What is going to pull us towards a specific future? What is a compelling image of the future? Which images in the future are competing?
what if questions:exactly what is says, a guided session to answers “what if” questions to find new ideas and examples for your industry.
The 4 archetypes :Also knows as “Dator’s four futures”, we look at 4 alternative futures: one of continuation, one of (societal) transformation, one of disciplined society, and one of collapse. (for the details, please read https://foresightguide.com/dator-four-futures/)
the Shell approach:associated with the multinational oil and gas company Shell, this is a method in futures thinking and scenario planning that involves systematically exploring possible future scenarios to inform strategic decision-making and manage uncertainty effectively.
Futures wheel: The futures wheel is one of the most widely used methods of futurists. It is a creative way of encouraging people to think about the future. It is usually about organizing a trend or about the ideas surrounding a future development (Bandhold, Lindgren, 2003).
Persona cards: what will the life of persona X look like in 20 years?
trend canvas– collect anc luster trends you see in the world. For an explanation, seehttps://wrkshp.tools/tools/trend-canvas– you can also find a miro template to a consumer trend canvas on https://www.trendwatching.com/news/ctc-live-on-miro
2×2 SES:2 by 2 scenario exploration system: find a question (about the future, after all, this is a futures thinking article) you want to investigate, find the 2 most crucial driving forces and work on these in a matrix – here’s an example of to go about it:https://www.futuresplatform.com/blog/2×2-scenario-planning-matrix-guideline
The Sarkar Game:a foresight role-playing game playing the 4 types of power (worker, warrior, intellectual and capitalist). For more information, seehttps://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/181-A01.pdfand https://library.teachthefuture.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Sarkar-Game.pdf
Futures thinking can be useful for when a CEO wants to lead their company into a certain future, without being disrupted by new technology or competitors. What will the company need to do today in order to survive shifts in the market?
For example, if you are running factories, you can analyse the impact of trends like automatisation, on the future of the plants.
Sessions can also be about desirability (what will people want in the future?), Technological feasibility (what could technically be possible in the future), or Economic (how can it become a sustainable business model in the future?).
(PS the main image was generated with ChatGPT – The image has been created to convey what futures thinking is all about, embodying the essence of looking into the future with optimism, curiosity, and strategic planning. It symbolizes the collaborative and multidisciplinary approach to envisioning a range of possible futures.)
There are a number of articles online comparing COVID-19 to a black swan event. But is it really?
Let’s check out some definitions. Investopedia describes a black swan as “an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.”
Impact? Check. Obvious in hindsight? Check. Extreme rarity? Not so sure… Humanity’s history has been rife with widespread pandemics. Smallpox, tuberculosis, the black death (killing 75-200 million people in the 14th century), not to mention the 1918 spanish flu pandemic, which killed an estimated 20 to 100 million people (caused by the H1N1 virus which also cause the swine flu pandemic in 2009). SARS, H5N1 (the birdflu), the Zika virus, smallpox (which was virtually eliminated thanks to … vaccinations). And the list goes on As a matter of fact, Bill Gates mentioned it in his Gates notes already in 2015. Which could mean that the new coronavirus wasn’t really a black swan event, but something more akin to a “grey rhino”.
So what is a “grey rhino”? Other than a massive beast that can trample you to pieces, a “grey rhino” is a highly probable, high impact yet neglected threat. Where these differ from a black swan event is that they are NOT random, NOT unexpected, but they are preceded by a number of warnings and visible evidence. Yet, decision makers, governments and companies rarely act on them until it is too late, because they consider them too remote, and neglect them.
So maybe COVID-19 was not a black swan, but something that we knew was coming one day but chose to ignore. Much like big companies tend to ignore incumbents eating away at their margin, while they are focusing on the next quarter’s results of their cash cow products.
The BCG Growth Matrix helps you identify your rising stars.
This is something that those familiar with the BCG Matrix (a.k.a. The Boston Consulting Group matrix or growth-share matrix) will recognize. Deciding whether the “question marks” you are investing time, money and effort in will be able to turn into stars or not. This proves to be quite difficult for larger companies, as they are not very keen on betting the firm on new innovations. But for those who do, it can pay off big time. An interesting case study here is Microsoft, that under the leadership of Satya Nadella was able to significantly grow its market cap by making the transition to the cloud and AI (for those interested in more, Nadella’s book “Hit Refresh” is a good read).
Microsoft stock rise since Nadella became CEO
The incumbent’s dilemma – why are companies blindsided?
Very often they are blindsided by disruption because they did not see the grey rhino that was coming for them. There is no one reason for this, but it is mostly a combination of the below reasons.
It can be that their core products are built on “older” tech or legacy platforms that need to be maintained, and where new products or additions need to work/plug in/be backwards compatible with these platforms… Startups, on the other hand, can often start from a clean slate, giving them faster time to market. The answer to this is very simple: accelerated digital transformation (ok, even though the answer is simple, implementing it is a daunting task)
Due to their structure bigger companies also tend to move slower the bigger they get: testing, retesting, panels, committees, approval loops, all things startups are not bogged down by. This is one of the more difficult things for bigger companies – making sure that innovations from within are not stopped by corporate policies and politics – something that should be recognized by the corporate leadership and addressed from the top through real support for change, and not just innovation theatre.
And of course the other part of incumbent’s dilemma of keeping their shareholders happy with cash cows generating revenue versus investing in new and unproven products, techniques, business models. Companies should keep an eye out for what is happening in the market, identify the forces that can disrupt their cash cows and make sure to really act on them. Various solutions to address this are possible, ranging from innovation teams over internal programs to stimulate innovation throughout the company, all the way to corporate Venture Capital groups.
As mentioned before, what they absolutely need to avoid is the infamous “Innovation theatre”, where big companies realize that they have the challenges mentioned above, and desperately try to address these with all kinds of innovation initiatives… that then don’t get implemented because of the issues listed above.
In summary, the problems to address are: failure to see the strategic inflection points coming, failure to see the disruptors coming from different angles, and failure to act and really implement change.
PS if you’re wondering what other grey rhino’s are still out there, have a look at this Politico article. [/av_textblock]
“Ideas are just a multiplier of execution” is what Derek Sivers wrote in his book “anything you want”: You can see how this plays out in the visual scoring table of idea versus execution below. To see the true value, you need to multiply the idea with the execution.
Investor logic supports this approach: investors usually prefer investing in an A-team with a B-idea instead of the other way around. This is because ideas are easy, turning them into a profitable business isn’t. Once you have your brilliant idea, you need to see if it sticks, check with real potential customers if it is a viable solution to a real need that they have. You will need to get out of your bubble and gather hard feedback. You will need to create a product, scrape money together, build a first version (MVP) of that product, and IF you get traction, scale the business. It sounds easy enough, but as the startup curve shows, it’s a tough process, and most don’t make it past this stage.
The Startup Curve
Once you do get to a real solution/market fit, you’re ready to start scaling. But be warned: scaling at a rapid pace comes with its own unique set of challenges. What has worked for your startup in the past may not work going forward with your scale-up. You’ll likely experience additional stress and chaos that comes with exponentially growing your company. You will need to navigate additional pitfalls like shifting focus and alignment, hiring prematurely or too late, establishing long term goals, focusing too much or too little on marketing, postponing the next funding round, and lacking of a scalable infrastructure, to name but a few.
Implementation is everything
Everything needs to fit together in order to get to a successful implementation of your growth plans. Ignace Van Doorselaere, current CEO of Neuhaus, explains thus as follows:“If you line up five dominoes, and you push the first … so that the second, third and fourth fall – but the fifth remains standing – then the score is not 4 out of 5, but 0 out of 5. Because everything that is not implemented does not exist.”
The good news is that companies have been scaling for ages, and that there are some strategies you can build upon. One needs real implementation of the strategy and ideas, because if something isn’t implemented, it’s all wasted effort. You’ll need to take a hard look at your current capabilities and how they fit with your future aspirations, clarify your strategic priorities/opportunities/challenges, and then build an action plan to take your company to the next level.
Before we talk about the second valley, let’s go back in time to 1991, when one of the “must read” book for high-tech startups was “Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers”.
Crossing the Chasm
It was a book targeted at tech startups (yes, in the nineties we had those too) and focused on how to bridge the “chasm” between early adopters and mainstream customers. For a more in-depth intro, check out the wikipedia page.
After crossing the chasm (what we would now call the valley of death I guess), came the ride up “inside the tornado” (yes, that was the follow-on book, still available on amazon). It becomes interesting when you also plot the visual of the chasm onto the Gartner hype cycle. It is often in the stages between getting from their early adopters into getting sustainable traction through larger and consistent sales that most fail. But for startups turning into scale-ups the story doesn’t end there.
Credit www.businessprocessincubator.com
The second valley of death
Recently, some articles popped up talking about the further challenges for scale-ups, namely in wat is now dubbed “the second valley of death”.
What happens to companies once they have secured their first funding rounds and achieved product-market fit? According to the statistics, they’re not all successful in the long run. There are different opinions on what entails this second valley of death for scale-ups, and I tend to go with this one: overcoming the financial hurdles (i.e. later stage funding gap), and finding the right markets to truly scale up into.
Getting your future funding secured on time is key, as the story of our local startups Collibra and Small Teaser illustrate. 2 great stories, yet quite different outcomes with one becoming a unicorn and the other forced to close shop due to a lack of further funding…. which actually prompted this article (in Dutch) about the lack of growth capital in Belgium for scale-ups. But Belgium is not the only one with this challenge, as this Australian story highlights – clear issues in later-stage funding. SO … don’t forget to start your next funding round on time, and don’t be shy to get out of your home market to find additional funding.
Of course money is not the only pitfall when crossing the second valley of death. Have a look at the video below where Mahesh Kumar of Result talks about other challenges faced in the second valley of death. And if you’re looking for help, don’t hesitate to contact us at EYnovation.
Recent Comments